I couldn't help but think of the Presidency class I had with a few fellow Capstoners in the fall of '08 when I was listening to the State of the Union. Obama's defensive nature I interpreted to indicate that the Democrats are concerned about the wave of Repbublican momentum (although I'm not sure if such alarm is truly warranted).
I related this with the Presidency class as the Democrats fell hard in 1994 after Clinton's health care debacle, a similar dilemma the Obama Administration is facing right now. I discussed this with Justin in the policy class and I did agree with him on how the Democrats will not stand to lose as much as they did in 1994 this fall.
However, after reading the attached article, I can see a 1994-like defeat, although not as devastation, for the democrats as a more realistic possibility with the remarks from Obama. His "the difference is me" stance on the comparison between 1994 and 2010 makes me question if he has what it takes to stop the rush from Republicans.
In 1994, Clinton was able to do what he did best, be a politician, relate with people, and project an image in response to the Republican resurgence, which allowed him to turn sure defeat into re-election.
Obama may be extremely popular, but I have yet to see anything that indicates he is half the politician that Clinton was, which i why his lackadaisical demeanor should be a concern for Democrats.
The honeymoon from the the election is over, but this article shows that many in the White House still believe they can bank on the support they received almost a year and a half ago. While indicating that nothing is wrong is an understandable strategy, it's alarming to see Obama does not seem to bother to acknowledge the current political environment as Republicans pick up steam.
Although I don't feel Republicans will rush congress and retake the majority like they did in 1994, and there is no sign they have a charismatic leader to sphere head such a movement like Newt Gingrich, Obama's lack of interest toward the opposition only serves as an opportunity for Republicans to gain legitimacy among the public and stall any progress that Democrats hope to make. Thoughts?
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I think you hit it with the comment about Gingrich. Dems may be losing popularity but I don't think that loss is translating to Republican support per se. Rather, Republicans have a motivated base and the Democrats a depressed one. While the Republicans will likely benefit from this (and from a strong recruiting class of candidates) I'm not sure I see this translating to new majorities. Even if it does lead to major gains, I don't think it demonstrates that Republicans have the popularity built back up to truly push their own agenda. There is too much inner friction within the party and like Joe said, no strong leader. Until the Republicans really figure out what there is agenda is (and they may have to soon) I think they'll struggle to build consistent coalition.
ReplyDeleteI'd agree with both Joe and Justin, except on the margins. Joe's observations about Obama's "style" I'd agree with: he's no Bill Clinton. His delusional notion that bipartisan cooperation is doable at this point on major legislation -- even though history shows that major legislation demands bipartisanship -- has produced nothing except perceptions that he's weak and lacks strong convictions. Those are not winning attributes in any context. But hold the presses! He's been behaving in the days since the State of the Union as if he's finally gotten the memo. Yesterday's session with Senate Democrats contained the kind of rhetoric that political leaders must use, with plenty of indictments of the party of no and a visible increase in the visceral component of his communication, an element that has gone missing since his election. Clearly, the Massachusetts special election got his attention. And he seems to be back in campaign mode, which is better than the college professor put 'em to sleep with cerebral fence-sitting that has irritated so many among his base, even the cerebral college professors.
ReplyDeleteTo gain a majority Republicans need to get out their own way. They need to think more "big tent", instead of trying to put the fire to the feet of the moderates in the party. It will be intersting to see how the Tea Party situation plays out. Will NY-23 happen again? Yesterday's "The Fix" blog on the washingtonpost's site lays out their chances in key races pretty well.
ReplyDeleteObama does seem like he is growing impatient with the conservatives of the Dems, his pointed rebuke of Lincoln's comments can serve as proof. Can he do anything to turn around public opinion before the mid-term elections? Can he develop a narrative that resonates the need to reform healthcare? It is interesting that DADT is being reviewed right now, and Adm. Mullen's comments were more moving than anything Obama has mustered this last year. Maybe he can ask him to help him sell healthcare and immigration reform..
From the acknowledgment in the SOTU address that he did not do much to properly inject the "true" narrative of the health-care bill into America's bloodstream, it might be safe to suspect that there may be a lot many good things going behind the scenes that President Obama is yet to find reason to hype.
ReplyDeleteThe MA special elections may have sounded an alarm that the ways of Washington remain naked, but not until he gets a serious adviser - a true politician who knows the power behind blowing one's own trumpet, there may be rocky days ahead. Republicans know this and it is to their delight that Obama plays gentlemanly.
As a party whose fortunes are currently cast on the side of NO, the Obama misfortunes may not steer the GoPers to a magical platform. They cannot work magical numbers out of this, like a few others have also suggested. What I think the Republicans want is just sit in there and buy time and there will be not much for Obama taking home and so hopefully, the traditional vote-switch might work in their favor - say 2016! I say, maybe.
Benson, the main concern is that GOP voters will turn out in in 2010, despite them not developing a "magical platform". We've learned that elections is about voter turn out, and at this point, with a dissatisfied group of Democrats, Republicans will turnout more to vote than Republicans and this will hold true until the Democrats are able to fire back and brand the Republican party as the "the party of no".
ReplyDeleteSam, your comment about Obama's rhetoric is well accepted, and I too feel that the President's line of "reaching across the isle" is getting old. The question is this: Is Mr. Obama really an individual who can aggressively "call out" the other side? Is he "too" nice?