Joe Biden is tasked with a tougher challenge than is customary for incumbent vice presidents facing a challenge from the opposition's bottom of the ticket. Normally, VP debates are relatively inconsequential. Even when a line is esconced in electoral history -- e.g., "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy." -- it is void of ties to contextual matters or overall electoral significance. But President Obama's much-discussed underperformance in the first debate with Mitt Romney, coupled with its visible effects in the tracking polls, make tonight's event more crucial than is usually the case, if for no other reason than it offers a break in the pro-Romney, anti-Obama narrative that has dominated for the last week. That this narrative has prevailed despite widespread acknowledgment that Romney's victory in the first debate was predicated in large part on notable discontinuities in the Governor's positions over time on fundamental fiscal issues like GOP brand-name fondness for across the board tax cuts.
Biden's tactical task is to strengthen the association between Romney and Ryan. In this instance, that means forcing Ryan to defend his own budget, particularly the near-term cuts it dictates in Mediare as we know it as well as underscoring the undefined alterations in the tax code (with credits, exemptions and deductions) that would make an overall reduction in the individual and corporate rates "revenue neutral." Romney's recent pivot to foreign-policy points of difference with Obama does not play to Ryan's strength; thus, Biden will likely use his time to call attention to Romney's intentions and to the continuities they display with foreign policy under Bush and Cheney. Ryan has arguably been a drag on the GOP ticket, since he does little to enhance Romney's appeal among Independents and among those skeptical about a former governor's expertise in national security issues. And because his budget puts policy on paper, the commitments to cutting popular entitlements while doubling down on supply-side adjustments of the marginal tax rates, Ryan offers a bigger, more stable target than the shape-shifting persona at the top of the ticket.
Prediction: Biden will meet expectations, and arrest the damage done by Obama's off-night in Debate 1. It won't serve as a "game changer," but it will bolster confidence among the Democratic base and change the narrative going into Tuesday's second presidential face-off.
DT
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