I just ran into this idea -- the so-called Dunning-Kruger effect -- about a cognitive bias that operates with great frequency among the less competent among us. Its dynamics are such that their incompotence is matched with paradoxically elevated self-confidence because they are clueless in processing feedback that is accurate about their actual comptences.
It seems perfectly sensible to me: so many of those people who demonstrate so much confidence in themselves often seem the least qualified to hold such high self-confidence whereas those with the most grounds for self-cofidence based on their competence often fall paradoxically short of the cluelessly self-confident.
This notion offers a way to look at the earlier conundrum regarding the apparent willingess of Democrats to compromise when Republicans won't. It's kind of saying, "beware of those who have no reason to doubt their own competence and self-confidence." If you google it, the wikipedia article in resonably informative. Is this something you've encountered in you psych classes Mr Engeset?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
It is not a theory I am acquainted with, but it definitely makes a lot of sense in a lot of societal contexts. I definitely see how it figures as a defense mechanism making up for some lack in a person, whether it is a unconscious, conscious, or subconscious behavior is hard to say. Tying it to Tuesday, this is a sort of non-critical thinking. Am I right by saying that individuals with this personal characteristic are very absolute in their opinions, or say, living an absolute lifestyle in terms of beliefs (then yes, Republican leadership)? Do we see these traits more in some cultures than others (I don't know)? Can it be the result of "cultural prophecy of exceptionalism" (I don't know)? Can it be a result of a parent's prophecy of "you can be whatever you want to be kiddo" (I don't know)? What is certain is at least one thing, it is harmful in politics, right? Personally, I would like to see more humbleness in politics...but that is too unorthodox!
ReplyDeleteYou're absolutely right that this makes for bad politics -- precisely for the reasons you specify. It is non-critical thinking about one's own "thinking" -- in fact, I'd hesitate to even use the word "thinking" at all in this context. Basically, it is a simple proposition: among the requisite characteristics for competence is the ability to recognize incompetence. Put another way, the truly thoughtful and critical individual is fully aware of what he doesn't know for sure; he or she is undaunted by a large proportion of "known unknowns." Those whose estimates of their own competence are radically exaggerated are filled with a high percentage of "unknown unknowns." They think they are smarter than, in fact, they are. Ignorance, as the old saying goes, is bliss; but the bigger problem is that it seems to breed baseless confidence in one's competence. So be on the look out for overly confident "true believers." They are truly immune to critical feeback and thus to learning. Which raises a question: President Eisenhower's favorite book, which he required his cabinet members to read, is the thin volume by Eric Hoffer, The True Believer. Ike thought that Hoffer's book described perfectly the far-right flank of the GOP of his day, represented by Joe McCarthy and the John Birch Society. Since the latter has reappeared of late in the claims of Glenn Beck and in elements of the Tea Party, not to mention Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann, perhaps this is a title that we might want to consider for our capstone. Check it out at Amazon. The copy I recently bought at Barnes and Noble was less than ten bucks new. I'm curious to ask Mr. Engeset what he'd be doing if he were not enrolled in an institution of higher learning--if he had completed control of his own education? And why does he feel he doesn't as a student here and now?
ReplyDeleteThe Dunning-Kruger effect is a very interesting concept when looking at politics. You can apply it to the leaders of the Republican Party such as the some of the tea party ideas. So many ideas put forth about the tea party are just conspiracy theories such as the denial of climate change, birthers, and the people who still believe that President Obama is a Muslim. These people are so confident about what they are saying yet their logic is based on complete ignorance of the facts. Just take a look at the the study group of Iowa Republican Caucus goers. A majority of them are so certain that he is a Muslim. Their ignorance is amusing, but the problem comes when they elect people like President Bush.
ReplyDeleteI would be very interested in reading "The True Believer." Maybe it will help us understand the mass movement behind Obama's election followed by the counter-movement led by the tea party.
I do believe that ignorance breeds ignorance and if you tell a lie so many times, it just becomes truth. That is why people like Beck and Rush are so successful. They stay on message.
Its too simple to say I would have been better educated without any guidance other than my own rationality. This is simply impossible to know... All I can say is that I guess I would read a lot...one book that I am saving for summer break is the novel "War and Peace" by Leo Tolstoy, which merely based on its importance in literature I would think would be a great read. Initially I don't think the idea of educating myself would be very organized, but time would take care of that.
ReplyDeleteMainly, we do have responsibility to make the best out of the education we are receiving, but we should hold professors at a high standard as well as they should hold students to a high standard.
Btw, "The True Believer" sounds interesting with regards to politics today.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that both Sarah Palin and her supporters are the embodiment of the Dunning-Kruger effect. When she was chosen to be Senator McCain's running mate, she was falsely led to believe that she was actually qualified to be the second most powerful person in the world. This is especially true because I do not think that John McCain has any of these qualities of the Dunning-Krueger.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that this could also be true in a field like higher education, and linked to Ricci's suggestion of "faking it" through a large portion of life. People who feel a strong sense of confidence and intelligence for a portion of their life, only later to realize that they are not as intelligent as they once thought they were might feel as though they should "fake it" in order to keep up the act. One example I have is as a member of the student senate for the past four years. Often times when we bring suggestions to certain people, for improvements that can be made, we are given a long-winded, well rehearsed statement lacking substance, and told that it cannot be done. Even when the conclusion has been reached without much actual thought, it seems probable that the individual felt as though they had been effective by using a "I am smarter than you, so do not question my authority" type statement. It seems that even Wartburg is not void of these individuals.
"The True Believer" does sound interesting - it seems that our culture today is somewhat reminiscent of wanting to bring about a social movement, but it seems that no one wants to move.
ReplyDeleteDT - your "known unknown" comments sounded like Donald Rumsfeld's comments about terrorism and the War... "There are many known knowns, things we know, and things we know we don't know, that are known unknowns..." ha
I can definitely say that I think "The True Believer" sounds like a very interesting read. It seems like it would be something that would help us understand some of the loonies in politics these days. I think it provides a very interesting aspect for a everyone in our class, given the fact that it is written about a very interesting group of people in our own current political system. I don't believe many people can truly say they get The Tea-Partier's,and this book would probably help us shed some light on that.
ReplyDeleteGood on you, Trevor, to recognize the Rumsfeld terminology. "Known Unkowns" is, characteristically, the title Rummy has given to his soon-to-be-released memoir. As a pre-publication copy has been reviewed by Maureen Dowd, it's full of self-serving baloney and other-berating blame.
ReplyDeletePerhaps we've reached a tipping point re: the Hoffer book. Let's go ahead a write it in for the 22nd of February class, the final class on this side of our break. If you order now from Amazon, it'll arive by mid-week giving you a chance to read the first 90 pages (slightly more than half the book) for 2/22, leaving the remainder for the week we return. They may have copies at the Waterloo Barnes and Noble and at the public library. (This thing was published originally in 1951, making it a classic by almost any standard.)